China's Hot-Rolled Coil Exports Show Resilience Amid Trade Frictions
Despite the rising global trade protectionism and intensive anti-dumping measures in major markets, China's Hot-Rolled Coil exports have still shown strong resilience through flexible strategies. The latest data shows that the domestic hot-rolled coil export plan volume in December reached 1.157 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 8.4%, and the trend of steel mills sprinting to meet the annual export target at the end of the year is remarkable.
The export environment for China's hot-rolled coils has been tightening in 2025. Traditional markets such as Vietnam and South Korea have successively introduced anti-dumping measures: Vietnam imposed anti-dumping duties of 23.10% to 27.83% on wide hot-rolled coils and launched anti-circumvention investigations, while South Korea levied anti-dumping duties of 27.91% to 34.10% on relevant hot-rolled heavy plates. Affected by this, China's cumulative exports of hot-rolled coils from January to September decreased by 17.7% year-on-year.
Faced with trade barriers, domestic enterprises have responded actively: the Southeast Asian transshipment model has continued to heat up. Although transshipment through hubs such as Port Klang in Malaysia and Singapore requires an additional cost of 70 to 90 US dollars per ton, it still has economic advantages compared with anti-dumping duties, helping enterprises retain core customers.
While short-term transshipment eases pressure, enterprises are accelerating the layout of long-term markets. Emerging markets such as the Middle East, Africa and South America have become new growth engines. Infrastructure demand in Middle Eastern countries such as Saudi Arabia is strong, the launch of large-scale infrastructure projects in many African countries has driven a sharp surge in steel imports, and demand in South America has also gradually picked up. In terms of regional distribution, the export plan volume of Northeast steel mills remained high this month, while that of East China, North China and South China steel mills remained stable.
Product structure upgrading is also a key to breaking the situation: enterprises have increased investment in R&D and export of high-end special steel, and at the same time exported semi-finished products such as steel billets to avoid tariffs. From January to September 2025, China's steel billet exports surged by 214% year-on-year, and some were transshipped after processing in Southeast Asia, forming a new trade chain.
Industry insiders analyze that the resilience of China's hot-rolled coil exports stems from three major supports: first, the enhanced export willingness under domestic supply and demand adjustment, and the shrinking real estate demand has prompted steel mills to turn to the international market; second, the significant cost advantage. As of October 27, China's hot-rolled coil export price (FOB) was 130 US dollars per ton lower than the import prices of the European Union and the United States respectively; third, enterprises have flexible response strategies, and the effect of diversified layout has initially appeared.